Monday, March 28, 2011

Making Money on Line


How is Elop going to address this by
using Windows OS? He has to do more than just charge more, he has
to produce better product at competitive prices, which keep getting
lower. Elop will have to license the Widows OS, which is an
expense, one that he would bear to nowhere near the same extent if
he used Android. I feel he mistakenly looks at this as Google
commoditizing the Android platform, in lieu of the more reasonable
perspective of Google commoditizing the entire portable computer
space.


Well, the answer has arrived. Microsoft is buying Xx% of Nokia for paying Nokia over $1 billion to product Windows Phone 7 hardware.
Nearly all of this money is undoubtedly going into R&D and
marketing. Nokia and Microsoft (their new defacto owners) invariably see
Google as the pre-eminent trheat and are pulling out all of the stops
to nullify said threat. This also answers the question of how Elop, the
Nokia CEO will be able to deal with the reduced margins of having to
buy OS licenses while competing with vendors who get Android for free –
Microsoft is not only footing the bill, but investing in the business
as well. You see, the drop in Nokia’s share price is highly unwarranted
and their is visible synergy in this deal. Nokia gets to remove the
costs of OS R&D from its line times, sunk costs that have apparently
had negative incremental returns as they have had their asses handed to
them by Apple and most definitely Google – who knocked them off of
their number one market share perch in just over a year.


Microsoft gets the economic benefits of an existing hardware platform
that happens to have the number one marketshare metric in the world,
and gets it for just over a billion dollars. This is a win-win
situation. The question is,  will it win againt Google. Both companies
will still fail if they don’t execute on Google-time, who has compressed
development cycle years into months – literally!


From the Bloomberg article linked above:


Shrinking Margins (yeah, you’ve hear thist from me often enough)


Espoo, Finland-based Nokia needs to cut
costs to keep operating margins from narrowing further, after they
shrank to 4.9 percent last year from 19 percent a decade earlier. For
2011 and 2012, Nokia may cut its budget for research and development in
devices and services by about a third from last year’s spending of about
3 billion euros, said Sami Sarkamies, a Helsinki-based analyst with
Nordea Bank.


Microsoft spokeswoman Melissa Havel
declined to comment on the specifics of the agreement. Laurie Armstrong,
a spokeswoman for Nokia, said the final contract hasn’t been signed and
the company will share further details when they are complete.


Nokia’s royalty payments will help
Redmond, Washington- based Microsoft make a profit on the accord even
after the payments to Nokia, one person said. Some of the payment to
Nokia would be made before the company starts selling the phones,
meaning Microsoft bears some upfront cost in the partnership.



Microsoft shareholders want the company
to salvage its mobile-software business while also reining in costs. The
company doesn’t break out results for its mobile-software unit, and
instead groups them with the profitable Xbox video-game business, making it difficult to evaluate the financial performance of phone software.


Chief Executive Officer Steve Ballmer
has come under pressure from investors and his own board to improve
sales of mobile software after the company lost market share to Google
and Apple. Microsoft stock has declined 7.8 percent so far this year.


The agreement for the more than
billion-dollar payment was part of a campaign by Microsoft to keep Nokia
from choosing Google’s Android operating system, one of the people
said. Nokia also opted for Microsoft because Windows Phone software,
which is newer than Android and has a smaller number of handsets for
sale, gives Nokia a better chance to stand out, one of the people said.


The agreement also has Microsoft paying Nokia for the right to use its patent portfolio, one of the people said.


As part of the deal, Microsoft will use
Nokia’s Navteq mapping products for functions such as geolocation
services and selling local advertising and coupons tied to a user’s
position. If successful, that also could generate additional revenue for
Nokia, which will share in the sales. The two companies will also
divide revenue from services like search and advertising, Microsoft
President Andy Lees said last month.


I’ve been warning my subscribers about margin compression in this
space, and its about to get much uglier – to the extreme benefit of
consumers of personal and enterprise tech. Previous (and prescient)
posts from last year on this topic…


  • Don’t Count Microsoft Out of the Ultra-Mobile Computing Wars Just Yet
  • After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
  • As
    I Warned in June, DO NOT DISCOUNT Microsoft in This Mobile Computing
    War! Their Marketing Campaign is PURE GENIUS! and it Appears as if
    the Phone Ain’t Bad Either
  • Apple on the Margin
  • How
    Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the
    Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without
    Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue

Monetizing the Mobile Computing Race


We have a pretty firm idea of who is in the pole position as of now,
but that position is both risky and volatile, not to mention medium to
long term in nature – see Navigating BoomBustBlog Subscription Material To Find The Google Valuation Drilldown.


A more risk averse strategy is to go long on the component vendors
who supply those battling for pole position. Last week we released the
document Long candidate #1 – Hardware: The Mobile Computing Wars
to subscribers that outlined who our number one pick was after an
initial scan. This is not necessarily the absolute final say on the
matter since we have yet to perform a full forensic analysis, but the
company does look good in comparison to over 120 peers. Non-subscribers
should reference The Potential Equity Investments Most Likely To Prosper From the Google/Apple/Microsoft Mobile Computing Battle.


I am releasing the draft of the full shortlist of prospective long
candidates as of now (17 pages, 5 companies) to subscribers. Please be
aware that is a draft document and work in progress, but it is quite
informative nonetheless.  See Mobile Computing Vendor Long List Note WIP. Those who wish to subscribe should click here.


Click here to read up on all of Reggie Middleton’s Mobile Computing War opinion, analysis, and research.




As a possible deal with Newser falls apart, the online news pioneer ramps up its cultural coverage. The result: an ailing stock price, but traffic’s on the rise.


Kerry Lauerman remembers the time, a decade ago, when he was Salon’s Washington bureau chief and the website had a budget three times larger than it subsists on today.   


Now the Washington bureau is toast. “We’re leaner and meaner and we work a lot smarter,” says Lauerman, who took over in November as editor in chief.   







Salon made its name as a politically aggressive, staunchly liberal online operation. But in recent months I’ve noticed a very different kind of story often leading the site. There was “Men: The New Romantics,” and “Literature’s Gender Gap.” There was “My Husband, the Convicted Murderer” and “My Son, The Pink Boy.” Not to mention “Grammys’ Most Memorable Red-Carpet Outfits” and “The Hardest Part About Quitting Drinking? Dating.”   


So is there a personality transplant going on?    


“The identity of Salon is as a political site,” Lauerman says, “but our entertainment coverage has always done pretty well.” Beyond politics, he says, “we are emphasizing everything else more. We’ve staffed up in entertainment. We listen to our readers.”   


And are these stories about movies and marriages and sex designed to attract more advertising?   


“I’d be lying if I said that wasn’t a consideration.”   


Given Salon’s precarious financial state, it’s obviously a major consideration. The struggling site quietly put itself up for sale in recent months, and talks with Newser.com, an aggregation site founded by Michael Wolff, collapsed Monday. The New York Times Dealbook blog reported that Salon board members grew concerned that they might be selling for too low a price after AOL paid $315 million to buy The Huffington Post.  


The publicly traded company reported a loss of $4.8 million in fiscal 2010, with two investors making up the gap through loans. Salon’s stock is trading for a dime, down from $1.30 in the summer of 2008.   


“It’s not an easy space to make money in if you’re trying to do quality content,” says CEO Richard Gingras, who provided the original seed money for Salon’s launch. “We have beefed up the investment in culture and lifestyle… It is about growing the audience.”   


The first duty of any website is survival, and most of the news business—from old-line newspapers and magazines to newer operations such as The Daily Beast—is grappling with how to turn a profit online. The overhauling of Salon’s editorial mix comes as its center of gravity has shifted from San Francisco, where it was born 15 years ago, to Midtown Manhattan. Founding editor David Talbot and Joan Walsh, who stepped down last year, ran the place from the Bay Area; Lauerman, 41, is the first editor to be based, with most of the staff, in New York.


“It’s not an easy space to make money in if you’re trying to do quality content,” says CEO Richard Gingras, who provided the original seed money for Salon’s launch. “We have beefed up the investment in culture and lifestyle… It is about growing the audience.”


Walsh, who had tapped Lauerman as her deputy, was part of the new direction before returning to reporting and a book project. “Our news team is as good as it’s ever been,” she says. “But the political cycle ebbs and flows, and people get more or less interested depending on whether it’s election season and what the crazy story of the week is… We’ve probably gotten deeper into the cultural realm.”   









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